September 30, 2026 | Charles Patrick, HomeSmart — My Home Sellers Team
As we enter the final months of the year, Phoenix buyers and sellers are navigating a challenging combination: more available supply relative to sales, affordability pressure from higher mortgage rates, and holiday schedules that can interrupt home searches and showings.
For sellers, attracting a buyer takes thoughtful pricing, preparation, and flexibility. For buyers, more negotiating room can create opportunities, but the monthly payment still needs to work. Success starts with understanding the market you are entering today.
What the months-of-supply chart tells us
The accompanying Cromford Report chart, updated September 28, shows approximately four months of supply for the selected Maricopa County residential market, excluding UCB/CCBS listings. During much of 2020–2021, the same chart shows less than one month. More recently, supply has climbed from roughly three months earlier in 2026 toward four months as September ends.
That is a substantial change from the extreme shortage of the pandemic years. However, the chart also shows elevated supply during parts of 2024–2025. This has been an uneven adjustment, rather than a steady increase every year.
Months of supply measures how long available homes would take to sell at the current sales pace, assuming no new listings were added. It can rise because listings increase, sales slow, or both. Four months of supply does not mean every home will take four months to sell.
The practical message: buyers have more room to compare, and sellers need to give them a clear reason to choose their home. Conditions still vary by neighborhood, property type, price range, and condition.
Chart source: The Cromford Report, supplied screenshot, updated September 28, 2026. Historical readings above are approximate visual estimates for the displayed filters.
Higher rates change the value equation
Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed rate index stood at 7.54% on September 30, compared with 6.37% a year earlier. Individual quotes vary with credit, loan type, down payment, points, and lender pricing.
For perspective, a $300,000 loan amortized over 30 years would carry principal and interest of approximately $1,871 per month at 6.37%, versus $2,106 at 7.54%—about $235 more each month. This illustration excludes taxes, insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, and closing costs.
A home can become harder to afford even when its asking price stays the same. That is why buyers are weighing the complete cost of ownership, and why sellers should consider how both price and concessions affect affordability.
Sellers: compete with the homes buyers can purchase today
Start with your active competition. A sale from a year ago provides context, but it should not carry your pricing strategy by itself. Review recent closed sales alongside current listings, pending activity, price reductions, days on market, and available incentives. Active asking prices show your competition; they do not prove what buyers will pay.
Ask a straightforward question: If a buyer tours my home and three similar homes this weekend, why would they choose mine? Compare condition, location, updates, layout, monthly expenses, and terms—not just square footage.
Put price and value together. Fresh paint, clean flooring, good lighting, minor repairs, and attractive photography can help a home stand out. A dated property can still compete if its price accounts for the work a buyer will need to do. Before making expensive improvements, discuss which changes are likely to matter in your specific market.
Make your home accessible. Holiday travel and busy schedules can narrow showing opportunities. Reasonable notice, flexible appointments, and a home that is consistently ready to show help interested buyers get through the door. Presentation cannot generate an offer if buyers cannot see the property.
Consider concessions as part of the strategy. Help with eligible closing costs or a lender-approved rate buydown may address a buyer’s biggest obstacle. Compare a price adjustment with a credit, including the effect on your net proceeds. A concession works best when the underlying price remains competitive.
Respond to the market while your listing is fresh. Review showings, feedback, offers, and changes in nearby competition regularly. Limited activity is a reason to reassess price, presentation, access, and marketing. Waiting until after the holidays does not guarantee stronger conditions or a better result; compare that choice with your carrying costs and moving plans.
Buyers: use negotiating room to improve the whole purchase
Set your budget around the full payment. Include taxes, insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance when applicable, and a maintenance reserve. Choose a payment you can sustain at today’s terms. A future refinance may be helpful, but it should not be necessary to make the purchase affordable.
Ask for concessions that solve your actual problem. If cash to close is the obstacle, seller-paid eligible closing costs may help preserve savings. If the payment is the obstacle, compare a price reduction, permanent discount points, and a temporary buydown with your loan officer.
A temporary buydown subsidizes early payments; it does not permanently lower the mortgage’s note rate. Understand the full payment after the subsidy ends. Permanent points involve an upfront cost, so compare that cost with the monthly savings and how long you expect to keep the loan. Credits are subject to loan-program limits and eligible expenses; they are not an unrestricted cash allowance.
Compare new construction and resale. Include available builder incentives, but evaluate the complete package: purchase price, lender fees, rate terms, upgrades, lot premiums, HOA expenses, location, completion timing, and inspection needs. Ask whether an incentive requires the builder’s preferred lender, then compare written financing estimates on equivalent terms.
Be patient, prepared, and ready to act. Watch properties with longer market times and price reductions, while remembering that seller motivation varies. Keep your preapproval current and know your priorities. When a well-priced home fits your needs, other buyers may recognize the same value.
Make your offer clear and reliable. Strong financing, responsive communication, realistic deadlines, and flexibility on a seller’s preferred closing date can improve an offer’s appeal. Keep appropriate inspection and financing protections. An experienced, dedicated agent should help you assess value, identify negotiating opportunities, and protect your interests throughout the transaction.
Bring your loan officer into the search early. Our trusted lending partner, Stephanie Poje with CrossCountry Mortgage, NMLS #630227, can help you explore financing options and compare how different purchase structures affect your payment and cash to close.
Build your plan around your property and your priorities
Phoenix’s holiday season will not affect every property the same way. Some homes will attract interest quickly; others will need a pricing adjustment, better presentation, or more flexible terms.
At My Home Sellers Team, we help sellers understand their current competition and help buyers evaluate the complete cost and value of their options. If you are considering a move, let’s review your neighborhood, your timeline, and the choices that fit your goals.
