As we enter the fourth quarter of 2024, we’re seeing the first signs of life in the re-sale housing market after a prolonged period of stagnation. The ARMLS numbers for October 1, 2024, show notable changes compared to the same time last year, with both supply and demand fluctuating in unique ways.
Key Market Metrics: October 2024 vs. October 2023
- Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 19,643 compared to 13,404 last year, reflecting a significant increase of 47%, and a 6.6% rise from last month.
- Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): Up 44% year-over-year to 22,555, with a month-to-month increase of 7.2%.
- Pending Listings: A slight increase of 2.0%, with 4,349 pending listings compared to 4,264 last year, and up 7.6% from last month.
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): Up 11.7% year-over-year to 7,261 and 9.1% higher than last month.
- Monthly Sales: Down 2.3% year-over-year, with 5,447 sales in September, compared to 5,573 in 2023. This is also a 4.9% decrease from August 2024.
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: Down 0.3% year-over-year to $284.46 from $285.28, and a 2.1% drop from last month.
- Monthly Median Sales Price: Up 2.3% year-over-year, now sitting at $442,000 compared to $432,000 last year, and slightly up 0.5% from last month.
A Glimmer of Recovery
The market has been slow to react to the reduction in mortgage rates that started in July, but we’re now seeing momentum. Under-contract listings surged more than 9% throughout September, a clear sign of growing buyer activity, and are up nearly 12% compared to this time last year. While actual sales volumes remain lower than desired, the increase in under-contract listings suggests a potential rebound in closing numbers by mid-October.
Supply and Pricing Dynamics
Resale supply is increasing as expected during the fall months, with active listings up significantly year-over-year. This growth in inventory is normal for this season but may outpace the growing demand. As a result, prices have softened slightly, with the average price per square foot dipping 0.3% from last year. Pricing trends will continue to be a focal point, as any increase in demand will need to counterbalance the current oversupply to prevent further price decreases.
Looking Ahead
While September’s sales were disappointing, the uptick in under-contract listings gives reason for optimism. If the trend holds, we should see better closing numbers through October. For now, it’s a market in transition, and buyers and sellers alike will need to monitor how the evolving supply-and-demand dynamics impact pricing as we move deeper into the fall season.
Stay tuned for further updates as we track these shifts in the coming months!
