The Greater Phoenix housing market is heading toward year-end with more homes for sale, slower buyer activity, and increased pressure on sellers to compete. Here’s what the latest numbers mean for your next move.
Inventory is growing while demand slows
- 28,107 active listings: Up 9.6% from September and 8.3% from a year ago, giving buyers considerably more choices.
- 5,911 new contracts in October: Down 6.4% from September and 20.1% from last year.
- 5,140 completed sales: Down 12.6% from September and 16.8% year over year.
- 146.3 days of inventory: Up from 134.6 days a month earlier, reflecting more supply relative to the pace of sales.
Prices are softening—but not every segment is moving together
October’s median sale price was $444,000, down 1.3% from both September and last year. Although average price per square foot increased, a larger share of luxury sales helped drive that gain. For homes selling below $1 million, average price per square foot actually fell 1.0% during October.
The listing success rate also dropped from 68.6% to 62.9%, meaning fewer listings ended in a successful sale. For sellers, this reinforces the importance of realistic pricing, strong presentation, and flexibility during negotiations.
What could December bring?
With homes under contract 22.3% below last year, the current pipeline points toward fewer year-end closings. Holiday schedules may further limit activity. Buyers could find motivated sellers willing to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs, while sellers should prepare for potentially longer marketing times. Flat to slightly lower median prices appear more likely than a broad rebound.
Looking ahead to early 2027
If elevated inventory and weaker demand carry into January, buyers are likely to retain negotiating power. A seasonal pickup in interest could help, but a quick turnaround is far from certain. Mortgage rates, affordability, and the number of new listings will determine whether demand catches up or competition among sellers increases.
