As we begin June, here’s a snapshot of the latest ARMLS numbers for all property types and areas, comparing June 1, 2025, to June 1, 2024:
- Active Listings: 26,580 (up 47% from 18,044 last year; up 1.5% from 26,190 last month)
- Pending Listings: 4,595 (down 8.4% from 5,015 last year; down 14% from 5,328 last month)
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 7,936 (down 4.7% from 8,324 last year; down 12% from 9,047 last month)
- Monthly Sales: 7,095 (down 6.6% from 7,597 last year; down 3.2% from 7,326 last month)
- Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $300.14 (up 0.8% from $297.82 last year; up 0.3% from $299.34 last month)
- Median Sales Price: $455,000 (up 1.1% from $450,000 last year; up 2.2% from $445,000 last month)
Market Insights:
There’s mixed news as we head into summer. On the supply side, we saw some relief—active listings have slowed their steep upward trajectory from earlier in the year, largely due to a notable drop in new listings hitting the market.
However, demand continues to soften. Listings under contract fell by 12% compared to last month and are down nearly 5% year-over-year. That’s a disappointing trend, especially following a month that was already lackluster in contract activity.
Monthly sales were also down 6.6% year-over-year, but that number deserves context: May 2025 had only 20 business days compared to 22 in May 2024, giving this year a roughly 9% disadvantage in closing volume. On a per-day basis, closings actually held up reasonably well. The bright side here is that agents, lenders, and escrow officers are still moving deals across the finish line efficiently.
Pricing Trends:
Prices showed modest recovery after a dip in April. However, the uptick in the average price per square foot appears to be due more to a higher share of luxury home closings than broad price strength. The median sales price was surprisingly strong in May, but this may prove to be temporary.
Interest Rates & Incentives:
Mortgage rates remain stuck near 7%, and it’s becoming more likely that buyers will adapt to this new normal rather than wait for sub-6% rates to return. Many builders are responding by offering aggressive rate buy-downs—often to 4.99%—to keep deals moving. In many cases, buyers can negotiate for additional incentives as builders push to meet quarterly sales goals.
Looking Ahead:
Home prices remain close to their 2022 peaks, which is helping maintain overall dollar volume. However, the imbalance between rising supply and weakening demand continues to challenge sellers—not just in Arizona, but in broader markets like Florida and Texas, which are showing even greater softness. That said, some parts of the Northeast still favor sellers.
The key metric to watch in June will be new listing volume. If new listings stay low, they may help offset the weaker demand. But if we see an increase in supply, selling conditions could become even more difficult.
