The Arizona housing market closed out 2025 on stronger footing than many expected. December delivered a solid finish, with closed sales up meaningfully compared to the prior year—an encouraging sign that buyer demand remains present, even amid ongoing affordability conversations.
Inventory declined notably through the end of December, falling roughly 10% from November levels. While overall supply is still higher than it was at the start of last year, the recent pullback suggests that homes are continuing to move when priced and positioned correctly. This tightening at year-end is typical, but it also sets the stage for how competitive the early spring market could become.
Pricing remains remarkably stable. Average price per square foot ended the year essentially flat year over year, while median home prices posted only modest gains. This kind of price behavior is actually healthy—it reinforces confidence in the market without creating the kind of rapid appreciation that can strain affordability. When combined with rising household incomes and mortgage rates that are now lower than much of 2025, buyers today are in a better position than headlines might suggest.
As we move deeper into January, the big questions will be supply-driven. Will we see a wave of new listings hit the market, as many sellers return after the holidays? Or will inventory remain more restrained as homeowners hold onto favorable mortgage rates? At the same time, lower interest rates could help bring additional buyers off the sidelines.
Looking Ahead
Right now, the market is best described as balanced and evolving. Buyers still have options and negotiating power, while sellers are seeing improved conditions compared to much of last year—especially if they price strategically and present their homes well.
The next few weeks will be important in shaping how the first quarter unfolds. As always, strategy matters more than speculation, and staying informed is the best way to make confident decisions in any market.
If you’re considering a move in 2026—or simply want to understand how these trends affect your home’s value—I’m always happy to be a resource.
Here’s to a strong and successful start to the New Year.
Market at a Glance | January 2026
Active Listings
22,248 homes
⬆️ 12% vs. January 2025 (20,007)
⬇️ 9.0% from last month (24,653)
Pending Listings
3,373 homes
⬆️ 2.0% vs. January 2025 (3,307)
⬇️ 19% from last month (4,143)
Monthly Closed Sales
6,374 homes sold
⬆️ 14% vs. last year (5,576)
⬆️ 18% from last month (5,396)
Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.
$303.80
⬆️ 0.3% year over year ($302.98)
⬆️ 2.4% month over month ($296.69)
