Happy New Year! As we step into the real estate arena of 2024, we’re thrilled to present our first Housing Market Update of the year. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, a prospective buyer, or simply intrigued by the dynamics of the housing market, this update is crafted just for you.
In this edition, we’ll be unraveling the latest trends, analyzing market data, and providing insights that matter most in shaping your decisions this year.
Market Summary for the Beginning of 2024
Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2024 compared with January 1, 2023 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings: 14,593 versus 16,298 last year – down 10.5% – and down 8.7% from 15,981 last month
- Pending Listings: 3,263 versus 3,657 last year – down 10.8% – and down 14.1% from 3,798 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 5,127 versus 5,456 last year – down 6.0% – and down 12.6% from 5,867 last month
- Monthly Sales: 4,929 versus 5,138 last year – down 4.1% – but up 6.4% from 4,634 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $284.85 versus $265.90 last year – up 7.1% – but down 1.5% from $289.30 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $429,990 versus $412,000 last year – up 4.4% – but down 2.1% from $439,000 last month
The market has improved for sellers in some ways since last month. The supply of active listings is down almost 9% since December 1 and down more than 10% from a year ago. It is always good for a seller to have less competition from other homes. The monthly sales count for December was an improvement over November, but is still down from a year ago, when things were already not too good. So, this is neutral for sellers. The pending and under contract counts are downright bad for sellers, down sharply from last month and significantly lower than a year ago.
Considering how much mortgage rates have fallen in the last two months; the numbers can be described as fairly disappointing from a seller’s perspective. Lower mortgage rates are supposed to bring out more buyers. So far that is barely noticeable. From a buyer’s perspective this is good news because they have less competition to worry about.
Prices are still stable, up by more than 7% from this time last year when measured by $/SF, and up 4.4% if measured by median sales price. This is a shade more than the latest rise in the Consumer Price Index. The difference between the two price measurements is caused by the strength in pricing in the luxury market. Median sales prices are dominated by the entry-level and mid-range markets which have been weaker than the top end.
We are still very short of 2024 data to show which way things are heading. Both supply and demand are picking up, as we would always expect in January. Supply has risen 0.5% in the first 3 days while listings under contract are up 3%. This is barely enough data to draw a conclusion, but the indicators are better for sellers than buyers. The contract ratio has risen from 35.13 to 35.98. This is consistent with a neutral, balanced market, but with the trend again moving in favor of sellers.
What the market needs most now is higher transaction volumes. I do not yet know if that is coming, but with lower interest rates should come some affordability relief.
Thank you for trusting us to be your guide in this ever-evolving market. Here’s to a year of informed decisions, successful transactions, and prosperous real estate ventures!
