Here’s a snapshot of where things stand as of May 1, 2025, based on the latest ARMLS data, compared to the same time last year:
- Active Listings: 26,190 versus 17,129 last year — up 53%, and up 4.8% from 24,990 last month
- Pending Listings: 5,328 versus 5,486 last year — down 2.9%, but up 0.9% from 5,278 last month
- Under Contract Listings: 9,047 versus 9,336 last year — down 3.1%, and down 0.7% from 9,113 last month
- Monthly Sales: 7,303 versus 7,045 last year — up 3.7%, and up 4.89% from 6,967 last month
- Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $299.30 versus $306.53 last year — down 2.4%, and down 3.7% from $310.76 last month
- Median Sales Price: $445,000 versus $450,000 last year — down 1.1%, and down 3.2% from $459,500 last month
There were 22 working days in both April 2024 and April 2025, so no calendar adjustments are needed.
What’s Happening in the Market?
Transaction volumes improved in April, with closings up 3.7% compared to the same time last year. However, overall dollar volume declined due to a steep drop in closed sale prices from March to April. This drop is the result of three key factors:
- A rise in lower-end market activity,
- A noticeable slowdown in the luxury segment, and
- A general downtrend in pricing as buyers continue to gain control of the market.
While supply continued to climb throughout April, the growth rate is beginning to slow slightly as we head into May. Supply is now above normal, while demand remains well below normal—a combination that typically leads to further price declines.
Although monthly sales improved, the number of listings under contract dipped slightly compared to the start of April. In theory, demand should pick up as prices fall—but buyers remain cautious, wondering if home prices will continue to improve in their favor if they just wait a little longer.
What to Expect Going Forward
With temperatures heating up across Central Arizona, house hunting is becoming less comfortable, which usually leads to seasonal slowdowns in activity and softer pricing. Based on current trends, the sharp 3%+ drop in closing prices we saw in April isn’t likely to reverse anytime soon. In fact, we’re more likely to see the downward trend continue through the summer and into the fourth quarter.
The Bright Spot
Despite the pricing pressure, rising transaction volume is a positive sign. It shows buyers are still active and ready to move when the price is right. If that momentum holds, it could help bring more balance back to the market later in the year.
Are You A Buyer– May 2025
If you’re a buyer, the current market is tilting in your favor. Inventory is up significantly, giving you more options and better negotiating power than we’ve seen in recent years. With prices on a downward trend and the luxury segment slowing, many sellers are becoming more flexible—especially if their homes have been sitting on the market.
While interest rates and affordability remain key considerations, this may be an ideal window to shop strategically, especially if you’re not in a rush and can afford to be selective. Just keep in mind: once demand picks up again, especially in the fall, today’s pricing leverage may not last.
Seller’s Snapshot – May 2025
For sellers, the market is becoming more competitive. With inventory up 53% year-over-year and demand still lagging, pricing your home correctly from the start is more important than ever. Overpriced listings are sitting, while well-prepared, accurately priced homes are still attracting interest—especially in the lower and mid-price ranges.
Buyers now have more choices and are negotiating harder, so flexibility and presentation matter. If you’re planning to sell this summer, consider getting ahead of seasonal slowdowns by listing sooner rather than later, and work with an agent who knows how to position your property in today’s shifting market.
I’d be happy to provide a pricing strategy or pre-listing advice tailored to your specific situation.
