Phoenix Metro Housing Market Update – Early August 2025
The latest ARMLS data gives us a clear snapshot of where the market stands as of August 1, 2025, compared with the same date last year. While supply remains elevated compared to 2024, recent shifts show signs of seasonal slowing — especially in the higher price points.
Year-Over-Year & Month-Over-Month Numbers
| Metric | Aug 1, 2025 | Aug 1, 2024 | YoY Change | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 24,091 | 17,484 | +38% | -6.2% |
| Pending Listings | 4,345 | 4,441 | -2.2% | -3.9% |
| Under Contract (All) | 7,369 | 7,287 | +1.1% | -4.3% |
| Monthly Sales | 6,156 | 6,207 | -0.8% | -7.3% |
| Avg. $/Sq. Ft. | $284.83 | $286.62 | -0.6% | -2.9% |
| Median Sales Price | $441,995 | $440,000 | +0.5% | -1.8% |
Key Takeaways
Supply:
Active inventory dipped 6% from last month, driven largely by 7% more cancellations and 15% more expirations. Many sellers are taking a “time-out” from the market, reducing competition for those who remain listed. Still, supply is 38% higher than last year.
Demand:
Buyer demand remains soft. Closed sales are down slightly (-0.8% YoY) and saw a 7.3% decline from June. While under-contract counts edged 1.1% higher than last year, they still fell 4.3% month-over-month.
Pricing:
Prices are trending downward, particularly in the higher-end market. The average price per square foot dropped nearly 3% from June, while the median price slipped 1.8%. This seasonal cooling is typical in summer, but the pace of decline is worth watching.
Market Outlook – Late Summer & Fall 2025
- Supply is expected to dip further in August as more sellers withdraw, but historically rebounds in September — especially in luxury and 55+ communities.
- Demand is likely to remain muted, but active buyers are finding more room to negotiate. This is a stark change from the intense competition of 2021–2022.
- Affordability has improved significantly compared to August 2022 when adjusted for inflation, even though nominal prices are roughly the same as three years ago (outside of luxury).
📊 Bottom Line:
If you’re a buyer, the current market offers more options, less competition, and greater negotiating power. Sellers who remain active are competing in a smaller pool, which can be advantageous — provided pricing reflects current market realities.
